Brexit: a realistic scenario

June 11, 2016 at 11:15 am (economics, Europe, fascism, Guardian, posted by JD, Tory scum, UKIP)

Letter published in The Guardian 10/06/16:

 Boris Johnson speaks at a rally with Priti Patel and Michael Gove in Preston town centre on 1 June

Polly Toynbee is right (There is still time for hope – Brexiters can be persuaded, 7 June). Brexiters can be persuaded if they realise what British politics could be like after a vote to leave. Here’s a realistic scenario.

On 24 June Brexit begins. Cameron resigns. Boris Johnson becomes prime minister, Michael Gove becomes chancellor. With Ukip’s role over, Nigel Farage and company join the Tory party. Scotland leaves Britain. The rump gets a new name (as it can’t be called the UK) – KEWNI – and a new flag

Anti-democratic developments begun under the pre-Brexit government are extended. The Tories form KEWNI’s governments for decades to come. The post-EU economic shock is compounded by the structural problems derived from KEWNI’s dysfunctional capitalism (low productivity, weak innovation etc) and its semi-feudal state. Excluded from the European single market, KEWNI is forced closer to the US and China. Having no choice, it accepts a version of the TTIP with the US. Having shunned the EU’s collective sovereignty, it has no power to insist on safeguards. US companies begin to take over the NHS; Chinese companies, manufacturing and real estate.

Accelerated economic decline inevitably follows. The Johnson/Gove response is even more austerity. The xenophobia currently directed at EU migrants becomes directed inward – against people of colour. Inequality and poverty escalate and dispossessed KEWNIs mobilise in struggle. The government response is repression, both covert and overt. Gradually, KEWNI becomes dominated by an ultra-rightwing nationalism: a version of fascism with “gentlemanly” English characteristics.

Is this what Brexiters seek for our country?
Jeffrey Henderson
Professor of international development, University of Bristol


  1. Mike Killingworth said,

    If their comments on are anything to go by, I’d say that not a few of them do. No price too high to pay for the extermination of anyone to the left of Tony Blair.

  2. Cain said,

    An assured fictional best seller, well done. When is it being published?

  3. seditionsquare said,

    Reminscient of “Prime Minister Corbyn and the 1000 days that destroyed Britain” (

    Maybe you should contact the Maily for a job?

    • Jim Denham said,

      The scenario described in the main ATL post is a great deal more realistic than the SWP/’Lexit’ fantasy of Brexit ushering in a Corbyn government!

      • Steven Johnston said,

        We’ve had Corbyn governments before, they didn’t work. Obviously they were not led by him but they tried to implement the policies he believes in.

    • Steven Johnston said,

      Yep, though for supreme silliness they have posted here about Corbyn carrying on where Hitler left off with the Jews. When challenged about how he will do this answer comes there none.

  4. Roger McCarthy (@RF_McCarthy) said,

    Er I think you’ll find polls show support for Scots independence is lower if UK brexits first.

    This is because both Scotland and the rump-UK staying in the EU gave independence voters a have your cake and eat it scenario – they’d no longer be ruled by English Tories but would still get to live, work and travel to England with zero obstacles (hell they even thought they’d keep the pound too).

    The prospect of having a real border makes Scottish independence not less likely – clearly it is inevitable – but may well slow the separation down significantly.

  5. Roger McCarthy (@RF_McCarthy) said,

    Oh and the Tories will rule the UK for decades to come irrespective of whether we leave or stay in the EU – because the English (and it is the English) are a nation of deluded half-wits – and nothing short of our demographic suicide through not breeding will ever change that.

    The Tories are the oldest and most successful political party in world history for a reason.

  6. Jim Denham said,

    Birmingham Trades Council has just held a hilarious “debate” on the EU, chaired by a pro-Brexit fanatic determined to bias the discussion in favour of his side, bur who couldn’t prevent us left remainers wiping the floor with the collection of ageing Stalinists, SWP’ers and assorted little Englanders ranged against us.

    The main speaker for ‘Out’ was the SWP’s Jospeh Choonera (also billed as being from the ‘Lexit’ campaign), who felt it necessary, in his closing remarks to insist that the SWP would *never* use the argument that foreign workers undermined the terms and conditions of workers in Britain – except that previous floor speakers from both the CP and from the Socialist Party, had used precisely that argument. The CP/Morning Star is certainly part of the ‘Lexit’ Campaign and I understand the SP’s request to join has been agreed. So although, according to Choonera, the SWP wouldn’t use such an argument, they are happy to ally with people who do …

    By the way, Another Europe Is Possible speaker Hattie Craig (one of the few women present and probably the *only* person under 30 in the room) was absolutely superb, and clearly rattled Choonera, who had no comeback on her central arguments about internationalism and workers’ rights, except to deny reality (no workers’ rights have originated from the EU) and try to persuade us of his fantasy scenario that a vote for Brexit will usher in a Corbyn government ..!

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